Two articles were published last week, one in the New York
Times
and one in the Wall Street Journal,
following further analysis of the US’ 2010 census. This is a once-a-decade head count
of US residents, regardless of citizenship, conducted by the US Census
Bureau.  The census data provides a snapshot of the
US ten years after the last snapshot and allows researchers to evaluate how the
US has changed since the turn of the millennium. 

Essentially, these articles report on the fact that the
future population of the United States will be more Hispanic, more Asian, less
African-American and less white.  This is
as a result of the growing diversity of the US’ under-18 population.  It is not that the number of white and
African-American children is growing at a slower rate.  No, the fact is that the US is growing more
diverse because the number of Hispanic and Asian children is growing while the number of white and
African-American children is declining.  According to the Wall Street Journal:


“The data show the extent to which the U.S. has become
dependent on minorities—Hispanics in particular—for the next generation of
Americans. From 2000 to 2010, almost
half of states saw a decline in the number of children. Without Hispanics,
America’s under-18 population would have declined between 2000 and 2010
…The
number of non-Hispanic white children fell by 4.3 million over the decade.
Children in two other longstanding U.S. minority groups, blacks and Native
Americans, also saw small decreases. Meantime, the number of Hispanic and Asian
children grew by 5.5 million, with 4.8 million of those Hispanic.” (Emphasis
added).

The reason for this change is that while the US’ white
population is getting older, its Hispanic population is still relatively young.  As the New York Times states:


“The single largest increase was among Hispanics, whose
birthrates are far above those of non-Hispanic whites, largely because the
white population is aging and proportionally has fewer women in their
child-bearing years. The median age of whites is 41, compared with 27 for
Hispanics…”

So what does this mean for the future of the US?  The Wall Street Journal again:


“Shifts in the youth population’s racial makeup suggest the
U.S. could become a “majority-minority” nation—where non-Hispanic
whites account for less than half of the population—before the 2042 date that
the Census Bureau has estimated in the past…”

This is already the case in some states in the under-18 age
group:


“In 10 states, white children are now a minority among their
peers, including six that tipped between 2000 and 2010. Others will follow
soon: In 23 states, minorities make up more than 40% of the child population.”

So the US is faced with a growing, young Hispanic population
and a shrinking, older white population. 
As the New York Times states, this fact raises interesting policy
questions:


“America’s future will include a far more diverse young
population, and a largely white older generation. The contrast raises important
policy questions. Will the older generation pay for educating a younger generation
that looks less like itself? And while the young population is a potential
engine of growth for the economy, will it be a burden if it does not have
access to adequate education?”

I would be surprised if the largely older white population
suddenly stops paying for “a younger generation that looks less like itself”, especially as they will be relying on that younger generation to fund its pension plans.  However,
will we see the debate over funding between old and young generations taking on
a racial tinge?  And how long before the
US sees an Hispanic presidential nomination? 
Or will questions of race become less important as the country becomes
more diverse? The melting pot in the US is still melting away.

Marcus Roberts was two years out of law school when he decided that practising law was no longer for him. He therefore went back to university and did his LLM while tutoring. He now teaches contract and...