A new report has been released this week by the US Census Bureau providing some more in-depth analysis of the US’ population and its predicted changes through to 2060. Huffington News has helpfully compiled some of the more interesting pieces of analysis and predictions. The report, entitled “Projections of the Size and Composition of the US Population 2014-2060”, was the first to incorporate separate projections of fertility for native- and foreign-born women, which allows the Bureau to better account for the effects of international migration on the US population. Some of the highlights include:

  • The overall population will increase, albeit at a smaller rate. The US population is expected to grow more slowly in the coming decades when compared to the previous century. By 2051 the population is expected to hit 400 million (from 319 million today).
  • The US is becoming less white. By 2020, more than half of the nation’s children will be part of a minority ethnic group. By 2060, only 36 per cent of children under the age of 18 will be white, compared with the current 52 per cent. Over half (56 per cent) of the nation’s population as a whole will be made up of minorities in 2060, up from 38 per cent today.
  • The US is getting older. By 2030 the last of the baby boomers will have reached the age of 65 years old. In that year, one in five Americans will be 65 or older, up from the current one in seven.
  • Finally, the number of foreign born citizens will reach 19 per cent of the total population, up from the current 13 per cent.

So, the US will become larger, older, more multi-ethnic. Although the changes seem very large when looking 45 years into the future, I imagine the gradual change over the years will be much more imperceptible. Until the US economy suddenly becomes so debt laden that it cannot pay its social security and healthcare costs.

Marcus Roberts is a Senior Researcher at the Maxim Institute in Auckland, New Zealand, and was co-editor of the former MercatorNet blog, Demography is Destiny. Marcus has a background in the law, both...